Chance of recurrence as time progresses

Posted By
AvaL
8/23/2017 4:17am
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Replies: 3

Hi, hubby stage 3a and year out from diagnosis. I know melanoma is wildly unpredictable but does anyone have any research/stats about chance of recurrence the further out from diagnosis one gets. I know it reduces after 2,3,5 years etc, but anyone know from and to what (approx) for this stage? Feels like need to appreciate each small milestone, cautiously of course x

A lot of stats out there but with the intro of all the new drugs out there the stats are lagging behind. My Doc told me the only stat that mattered was mine-I'm 3b and  coming up on 5 yr mark and all I did was surgery

Anonymous - (8/23/2017 - 10:41am)

Most stats are out of date as stated above, but most stats are "survival stats", not recurrence stats.  I've not seen a lot of charts that post recurrence stats as those are most likely only obtained in a clinical trial.  Easier to track survival stats as institutions and state cancer registries track deaths by cancers.  The longer your go, the better your odds!  Celebrate each milestone and don't stress the rest!

My oncologist once told me that there is an estimate based on the number of years you stay disease free (or NED), and long term survival.  For 3a (which was my diagnosis), the chance of recurrence goes down to the single digits as the years without disease increase  but it's not 0.